War is Good for Business

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Eadrom Vintarus

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Post 2017.08.06 18:55

War is Good for Business

Currently many of the larger factions within New Eden are fighting in the northern parts of the cluster. This means lots of pew pew is being had by their members. That means lots of stuff is exploding. Their pilots will need replacement ships and those hulls and fits will need to be brought into their staging systems.

What does a major sovnull conflict mean for the average unista? A potentially golden opportunity to cash in on the conflict by producing and selling ships and modules. The increase in destroyed ships and the fact that multiple coalitions are in full scale deployment means that their industrial efforts are likely lower and they will be looking to ship hardware in from trade hubs to supplement internal production or to resupply after burning through reserve stocks. Jita is probably going to be the main hub to see increased volume from this conflict since it's Jita and it's in the north of empire space.

What ship hulls and modules should you focus on? Two pieces of research will help you. First, you need to find out what doctrine fits the factions are using. Odds are good they won't just tell outsiders what fits they are using for obvious opsec reasons, but you can do a bit of sleuthing on zkill and start to get a picture. You are looking for clusters of kill/loss mails from the same alliance, in the same part of space, at around the same time (within usually 5-20 minutes of each other), and using the same ships. Don't forget to consider support ships. If you are seeing a lot of shield tanked ships getting killed and there are a handful of shield logi mixed in the loss mails in the same system, odds are really good those were support ships for that fleet. Support ships, especially logi, are going to be harder to identify since there are fewer of them and they may not appear on killmails.

Second, look for the modules used by the ships in these lossmails and look at their market data. Volume is going to be of interest here. Odds are you will see an uptick in the volume traded as industrialists take up the call and start supplying more focused goods to match the increase in demand from the warring alliances.

I've done some preliminary digging and have the following list of loss mail clusters that are strong indicators of some doctrines used by GSF and TEST.

SPOILER WARNING!
GSF - Hurricane
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63908877/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63908880/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63908893/

GSF - Jackdaw
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902665/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902669/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902671/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902675/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902676/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902678/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902679/
+
GSF - Kirin
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902527/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902521/

Brute Force Solutions - Aug Navy Issue
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63901172/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63901179/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63901181/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63901186/
+
Brute Force Solutions - Augoror
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63901166/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63901171/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63901188/

Pandemic Horde - Moa
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63867664/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63867661/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63867658/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63867649/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63867629/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63867628/
+
Pandemic Horde - Osprey
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63867499/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63867507/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63867537/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63867591/

GSF - Cormorant
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902046/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902039/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63902434/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63897372/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63893076/

GSF - Vexor
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63860562/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63860566/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63860567/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63860568/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63860570/

GSF - Kestrel
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63906416/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63906415/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63906407/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63906381/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63906379/

GSF - Sabre
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63909019/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63909007/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63909005/

TEST - Hurricane
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63873366/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63873440/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63873685/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63873693/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63873694/

TEST - Sabre
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63873567/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63873192/

TEST - Ferox
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63870317/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63870318/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63870322/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63870326/
+
TEST - Basilisk
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63870368/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63870371/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63870378/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63870329/ (Osprey rookie version)


As a manufacturer, you'll want to be looking at non-meta T1 and T2 modules and then ship hulls. You can't produce meta T1 modules (yet), but you will need T1 versions to build the T2 versions. Weapon and tank modules are probably going to be the big ones here.

As a mission runner, you'll want to take note of the faction modules and implants being used. The more of these fits that use faction modules die and need replaced, if they require the use of faction modules, prices will likely increase because availability will be tied to LP pools. You may want to hold onto your LP for a bit or at least just trickle supply in. The longer the conflict goes on, the more stress is placed on faction module markets which could mean better ISK/LP for you later on.

As a trader, you'll want to take note of all the hulls and modules used. An alliance buying up all the reasonably priced hulls and fits of a specific doctrine in preparation for fleet operation is not uncommon, especially on the scale involved with the alliances that are currently fighting. Flipping faction modules could bring in good isk. Also of note is likely meta modules. They can't be manufactured, so the only place to get them is from drops and buying from trade hub. Meta modules are often used to make fits work in terms of PG and / or CPU and so can be really important. You may consider trying to corner the market on a specific meta module that's critical to make someone's doctrine work.

As a hauler, the big thing to keep an eye out for is price differences between Jita and other hubs. The farther away from the north, the better your odds of finding items you can haul from one trade hub to Jita where prices are artificially inflated due to war. Also, there may be in increase in hauling contracts as alliance logistics personnel find these same deals and need to get war material shipped from outer trade hubs to Jita where their jump freighters can take over and get the hardware out to their staging systems.

If you find other clusters of kill/loss mails that look to indicate a doctrine being used by a faction in this war, post below and I'll include it in this post. If you have questions or have advice to offer or corrections, also post below!
NSC Staff: Hangar Team
Please let me know if any NSC hangar needs attention!

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Matt Ross

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Post 2017.08.06 19:24

Re: War is Good for Business

+1 for war Profiteering!
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Eadrom Vintarus

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Post 2017.08.08 16:52

Re: War is Good for Business

A very large battle occurred last night in the GSF northern front staging system.

http://evf-eve.com/services/brcat/?s=14 ... 38&t=bebbe

Battle reports like this, often posted on reddit.com/r/eve, are valuable bits of intel for everyone. In this thread, we'll focus on the non-aligned industrialist's perspective.

As you scroll down, you'll notice almost all the ships on both sides are one of a small number of types of ships. You'll a number of capital ships, mostly carriers. Next is a group of Nightmares from TEST. Unfortunately for us, only one of their faction battleships were lost.

https://zkillboard.com/kill/63941423/

There's the fit for the Nightmare that was lost. Usually we would want 3 to 5 lossmails in order to have a good amount of confidence that the fit being used is the doctrine fit. The more lossmails you find that are the same (or very very close, maybe a module or two or weapons are meta'ed down), the more confident you can be in that the fits you are seeing is the doctrine fit. So this is probably TEST's Nightmare doctrine. If you wanted to be more sure, you could start digging through TEST's previous lossmails and see if you can find more losses with the same fit.

https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940631/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63941037/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940483/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940875/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63941081/

^ Here we can see a couple sub-variants of GSF Typhoon doctrine.

https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940891/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940874/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63941435/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940936/

^ Some GSF booster command ships. Note the larger variety in the highs than one would expect in like a dps mainline ship.

https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940586/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63941298/

^ NC. Macharials. Note the differences in the utility mid slots.

https://zkillboard.com/kill/63942139/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63941028/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63941369/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63941511/

^ Pandemic Legion Abaddons

https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940596/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940615/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940481/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940630/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940401/

^ MC Ferox fleet. Note the meta'ed down guns fit. This is common for newer / younger pilots as most people will prioritize T2 tank over T2 weapons (dead dps does 0 dps). If you are selling on reship contracts, you might consider selling meta refit packs for those pilots that can't use T2 weapons.

There are more clusters to look at, especially in the support classes of ships. As you can see, a battle report like this is a treasure trove of industry and market data (in addition to the military and propaganda value). Even if you aren't involved in a war, looking at these are valuable bits of information.
NSC Staff: Hangar Team
Please let me know if any NSC hangar needs attention!

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Garrett Achasse

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Post 2017.08.09 19:08

Re: War is Good for Business

Eadrom Vintarus wrote:https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940596/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940615/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940481/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940630/
https://zkillboard.com/kill/63940401/

^ MC Ferox fleet. Note the meta'ed down guns fit. This is common for newer / younger pilots as most people will prioritize T2 tank over T2 weapons (dead dps does 0 dps). If you are selling on reship contracts, you might consider selling meta refit packs for those pilots that can't use T2 weapons.


So that is why the price of Feroxes have been going up for the last week. :) I put in a buy contract to pick up a few and just can't seem to get any.

My assumption for the large alliances was that most of the their losses would simply be replaced from within the alliance and they wouldn't be sourcing doctrine ships from Jita.
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Eadrom Vintarus

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Post 2017.08.09 23:13

Re: War is Good for Business

Garrett Achasse wrote:My assumption for the large alliances was that most of the their losses would simply be replaced from within the alliance and they wouldn't be sourcing doctrine ships from Jita.


The goons have a strong enough industrial base within their alliance to provide for their most of their needs. The 3rd largest market in New Eden is in Delve and proves that point. It will be interesting to see if they can maintain that over the course of the deployment. TEST has a modest industrial base as well, but no where in the same class as the goons. NC., PL, and MC likely import a large majority of their sub-caps, but I could be wrong because I've not really heard much of anything about their industrial capabilities.
NSC Staff: Hangar Team
Please let me know if any NSC hangar needs attention!

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Stasia Ohau

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Post 2017.08.10 12:58

Re: War is Good for Business

Garrett Achasse wrote:So that is why the price of Feroxes have been going up for the last week. :) I put in a buy contract to pick up a few and just can't seem to get any.

Guess I need to build more Feroxes :lol: (Heck it looks like some region trading might turn a nice profit)

Where did you put up the order? In my experience Amarr is usually the best place to get hulls. Every once in awhile you can find a deal in Jita but often that's the worst place to buy them. Due to Jita's proximity to the stagings for the new war I expect there to be a lot of upward price pressure on the components going into the participants' doctrines.
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Garrett Achasse

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Post 2017.08.10 14:28

Re: War is Good for Business

Stasia Ohau wrote:
Where did you put up the order?


Jita of course :) It was right before the war started and I was having them shipped down to NSC.

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